“Arab Spring” Leading to “Eurasian Winter”

“The world should rush if it doesn’t want to face more tragic than “Arab Spring” “Eurasian Winter”


Ex-Speaker of Parliament and Leader of Open Society Party held meetings in the US capital Washington with international organizations promoting democracy in the world

 Party leader shared with “Qafqazinfo” information, according to which during the Washington trip he met with leadership and experts from such organizations as Freedom House, National Endowment for Democracy, which is sponsoring the initiatives of the US government, as well as with experienced former US diplomats and ambassadors in the countries of Former Soviet Union, members of Congress and other people. Subject of discussion was the analysis of the recent events in the world and development of global strategy.

Party leader while noticing an exceptional role of the 1975 Helsinki Act, where main provisions of human rights were reflected, in the destruction of Soviet Union and restoration of democracy in countries of Eastern Europe, attempted to bring a new dynamism to the discussions by claiming that it ceased to correspond to the needs of the current world.  According to him, the processes called “Arab Spring” show that dictators don’t want to leave without bloodshed. “What started with the deaths of hundreds of people during Tunisian events, continued with the slaughter of several thousand people in Egypt and ended with deaths of tens of thousands in Libya”. Killings of thousands of people continue today in Yemen and Syria. No matter how different those nations are in terms of economic situation, the reason for those processes taking place is the same and is directly connected to the violation of the rights of citizens. In all those countries elections have been falsified for a long time, dictators usurp power individually or dynastically and try to keep it by force.

Corruption and bribery are like cancer to the society, keeping it under the iron press. Dictators are personally leading the policy of bribery and corruption. They treat the country as their personal household, they don’t consider country’s finances to be people’s property, spending them according to their own wishes. Families of dictators are full owners of their countries, their ministers are degraded to the level of their servants. “Arab Spring” shows that quite soon dictatorial rule will face a global crisis and the main task now is to be able to manage this process so that there is no bloodshed.

In today’s world it is impossible and considered immoral for civilized countries not to intervene in order to save people from physical extermination by the dictator. In recent years in order to get rid of dictators military intervention was applied three times: in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. Iraq-Afghanistan wars already cost more than one trillion dollars and near 200 thousand lives. In both countries new regimes were created based on democratic principles: in Afghanistan close to thirty percent, in Iraq close to eighty percent. In Libya NATO spent more than 300 billion dollars on bombardment, more than thirty thousand people lost their lives and the process is just in the beginning stage.

In order to avoid such costly, both financially and in terms of the lost of people’s lives, interventions, outdated Helsinki Declaration should be replaced with new one. In the new declaration one of the provisions should reflect that the conduct of free and fair elections is the main principle of determining the state of human rights in the country and cannot be considered an internal issue of the country. The list of countries where the results of the elections in recent years have been totally falsified should be developed and starting from the second half of 2012 elections in those countries should be conducted by the United Nations. The countries of the Former Soviet Union such as Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Belarus and Kazakhstan are those who totally falsify elections and should be included in the first “black” list. Russia and Armenia can be included in the second list of authoritarian regimes. Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan belong to the third group of authoritarian regimes which are on the threshold of democracy.

If representatives of civilized world do not intervene into the development of the events in the first group of totalitarian regimes, in a few years revolutions, causing great amount of death, will be inevitable and no repressions would be able to stop them. The military intervention of the United States or NATO in those countries would also be impossible, since they are surrounded by China, Russia and Iran. Unlike in 1990’s, there will be lots of bloodshed, because different groups assembled quite big amount of financial resources and in any kind of extreme situation they will try to assume the power. The world should rush if it doesn’t want to face more tragic than “Arab Spring” “Eurasian Winter”.

Deep discussions around those issues were held during the meetings and it was accepted that revolutions in totalitarian states are inevitable. It was decided to continue those meetings in more intensive fashion and broader format.”

Rasul Guliyev - Rəsul Quliyev haqqında

Rasul Guliyev is the former Speaker of the Parliament of Azerbaijan (1993-1996) and is currently leader of the Open Society Party, one of Azerbaijan’s opposition parties. He is a passionate proponent of democracy. He actively participates in efforts to secure democracy and human rights in Azerbaijan, an oil-rich nation by the Caspian Sea and a former Soviet Republic. He writes and speaks out forcefully against the dangers of resurgent dictatorships in the former Soviet Republics. Mr. Guliyev resigned from his post as Speaker in 1996 to protest the human rights violations, censorship policies, widespread bribery and corruption, and anti-democratic policies of the Heidar Aliyev regime. Since that time he and his relatives and colleagues have been continually harassed by the government, now headed by Heidar Aliyev’s son, Ilham. Mr. Guliyev and his family live in political exile in the United States. During the past several years Mr. Guliyev has devoted his efforts to writing political and historical books that reveal the realities of life in Azerbaijan today. His books have enjoyed widespread interest in the Azeri diaspora forced to leave their homeland because of political persecution. Millions now live across Europe, in Russia, and the U.S. Recently, when excerpts from his latest book were published in an opposition newspaper in Azerbaijan and the book began selling within Azerbaijan, the government intervened to halt its distribution. Mr. Guliyev has presented briefings to US policy makers in numerous forums, including those sponsored by the National Democratic Institute (NDI), the International Republican Institute (IRI), the Congressional Human Rights Caucus, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and the Kennan Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center. He has testified before the US Congress’ Helsinki Commission (Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe) on the issue of Elections, Democratization, and Human Rights in Azerbaijan. Government Service and Political Involvement Following a career in the oil industry (in 1992 Mr. Guliyev was named Vice President of SOCAR, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic), and with the advent of Azerbaijan’s independence from the Soviet Union, Mr. Guliyev became involved in the political process in Azerbaijan. He served as Speaker of the Parliament during the early years of independence but became increasingly disenchanted after former KGB General Heidar Aliyev seized power. Since the late 1990’s he has been a leading opposition figure and party leader. In 2005 he was his party’s candidate for the parliamentary elections, but was prevented from returning from exile to Azerbaijan to participate in the election process. In dramatic events, the government closed and sealed off the airport to prevent his plane from landing and arrested many of his supporters. Despite this, he garnered the majority of votes in his precinct – yet the authorities would not validate his victory in this election that international observers decried as marred with irregularities and falsifications. Two years later Mr. Guliyev co-founded the Open Society Party and was elected party leader. Since the 2008 presidential elections, the entrenchment of Ilham Aliyev’s power, and the growing reliance on Azerbaijan by the US, repression in Azerbaijan has increased. Journalists and American-educated Azeri bloggers have been arrested for talking and writing against Ilham Aliyev and his family. The office and home of a leading human rights activist was recently bulldozed by the government. This climate creates dilemmas for the U.S. government which looks to Azerbaijan for energy resources for the West and for cooperation with regional security needs. The next Azerbaijan presidential election will be held in 2013. Ilham Aliyev will be the leading candidate. The opposition in Azerbaijan has been crushed. And under Aliyev’s leadership and direction, the country’s Constitution has been amended to remove term limits and set the stage for Aliyev’s being “president for life.” It is in this context that Rasul Guliyev is renewing his efforts to remind and inform U.S. policy makers of the on-going repression and corruption that plagues Azerbaijan, and encouraging U.S. policy makers to speak out about these realities. Personal Rasul Guliyev is married to Elmira Guliyeva, formerly an oil engineer. He is the father of three and has six grandchildren.

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